Oregon v. Oklahoma State

Today's the day, finally, for the Pac-10 to demonstrate to the Big-12 what real football is all about.  Or, today is the day that the Big-10 punches the Pac-10 square in the mouth.  My hunch is that it will be the former.

Oregon faces off against Okalahoma State in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl tonight at 5:00 PM (PST) (ESPN).  Almost universally the prognosticators are calling for a shootout, apparently believing that neither team will bother to field a defense.

After some lame and probably ill-informed analysis, I have determined that Oregon will win this going away.  It will won't be a shootout - it'll be a turkey shoot.  But only IF Oregon's defense shows up.  When it does (see, first half of the Arizona game), it's like the Terminator, getting the opposing offense in its sights and then brutally, methodically, dismembering it.  The Oregon defense is faster and stronger than the Oklahoma State D.  Oregon D-lineman Nick Reed alone has more sacks than the entire Okalahoma State defense for the season.

On the other hand, if the Oregon D does NOT show up, (see, most of the second half of the Arizona game), then Okie State will run wild through the air.  Oregon's weakness is, as always, its secondary, which plays a good two yards off every receiver.  Oregon has a defensive philosophy that it's okay for the opposing team to catch the ball, it's just not okay for the receiver to gain yards after the catch.  Thus, a smart offense can move on Oregon by playing toss-and-catch for 4-6 yards all day.  You never need to run another play.

Fortunately, even if the Oregon secondary stinks, OK State will make the mistake that other offenses make by feeling an inexplicable need to "balance" the offense.  In fact, the one "rave" I hear about the Cowboys' offense is how "balanced" it is.  OSU will not run the ball against Oregon with any success, and that will put pressure on its passing game - unless they go for 4-6 yard short gains every play.  Oregon gives those up like it was passing out Halloween candy.

My money is on the Oregon D, and in particular the secondary, showing up - they have a lot to atone for this season and with great seniors like Reed and Patrick Chung playing their last game, expect some bloodied-up Cowboy parts lying on the field by game's end.

On the other side of the ball, OSU can't stop Oregon's offense.  It's just that simple.

I know OSU fans like to mention how their team's only losses came to teams ranked, at the time, #1, #2, and #3.  But the rankings had those teams (except maybe Texas) ranked way, way too high.  As if there was any question about that, see Missouri's need for overtime to beat Northwestern - yes, Northwestern, one of the Big-10's perennial doormats.  I was unaware they even still played football at Northwestern.

Of course, Oklahoma is going to get butchered by Florida, while Texas manhandles an Ohio State team whose great accomplishment is to be a pretty good team in a very bad conference.  (I would have preferred to see a Texas-Florida matchup - now THAT would be some football).

Anyhow, OSU, in those hideous orange-and-black Great Pumpkin costumes, is about to be brought back to reality. (Reality = Pac-10 > Big-12, even in a supposed "down" year).

Prediction: Oregon 62, OSU 27.

Pac-10 week three - oh well

So I was off in my predictions last week. I knew UCLA was overrated and Arizona was still a distant threat to be consistent, but come on - Utah was 0-2 and throttled by OSU, while New Mexico had only beaten a Pac-10 team one other time in its history.

Rather than the 7-1 outcome I predicted (with Stanford losing to San Jose State), UCLA chokes (not really), Arizona just can't quite get there, and Stanford rolls. So we went 6-2. Still not bad, but should've been better.

Most notable, however, was UCLA's tremendous beatdown at the hands (or hooves) of the Utes. But stop for a moment and think about UCLA. Sure, they had moved up to No. 11 in the polls. But did anybody stop to ask why? Two reasons - 1) they beat USC last year and 2) they have 20 returning starters.

So? Oregon State beat USC too. The Beavs are hardly worthy of a ranking. 20 returning starters? From what, a mediocre to poor team? UCLA wasn't anything to write home about last year (or the year before that) and there was no reason to think that had changed. They got lucky one game at the end of the season when USC was looking past them. UCLA has a not-very-good football team, a not-very-good coach, a not-very-good quarterback, and return 20 not-very-good starters. What's it mean? It means they're not very good.

But should they have got taken behind the woodshed at Utah? An 0-2 Mountain West team should not, EVER, lay the beatdown on a Pac-10 team - not even Stanford. It is thus only fitting that UCLA plummeted from number 11 to being unranked, ala Michigan post Appy State.

Anyhow, the Pac-1o improved its non-conference performance to 20-6 (.7692), although the Beavs' "big" win was against 1-AA Idaho State. As I predicted, the conference went 1-1 against the Big-10 and Big-12, with Washington losing to Ohio State and USC thumping Nebraska. Note to Nebraska - football doesn't live there anymore. It moved away years ago. Try competitive corn-shucking.

Meanwhile, the Big-12 went 27-9 (.75), the Big-10 went 26-7 (.7878), while the SEC went 15-3 (.8333). Oddly, the SEC played a bunch of confernce games, so it's tough to really evaluate it with the same view as the other conferences, who other than UCLA v. Stanford have yet to play within their own conferences.

So my predictions for the coming week:

Pac-10: Arizona at Cal - Cal, 52-10.
WSU at USC - USC, 32-17
UO at Stanford - UO, 49-3
OSU at ASU - ASU, 17-13
UW at UCLA - UW, 38-20