Oregon v. Oklahoma State

Today's the day, finally, for the Pac-10 to demonstrate to the Big-12 what real football is all about.  Or, today is the day that the Big-10 punches the Pac-10 square in the mouth.  My hunch is that it will be the former.

Oregon faces off against Okalahoma State in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl tonight at 5:00 PM (PST) (ESPN).  Almost universally the prognosticators are calling for a shootout, apparently believing that neither team will bother to field a defense.

After some lame and probably ill-informed analysis, I have determined that Oregon will win this going away.  It will won't be a shootout - it'll be a turkey shoot.  But only IF Oregon's defense shows up.  When it does (see, first half of the Arizona game), it's like the Terminator, getting the opposing offense in its sights and then brutally, methodically, dismembering it.  The Oregon defense is faster and stronger than the Oklahoma State D.  Oregon D-lineman Nick Reed alone has more sacks than the entire Okalahoma State defense for the season.

On the other hand, if the Oregon D does NOT show up, (see, most of the second half of the Arizona game), then Okie State will run wild through the air.  Oregon's weakness is, as always, its secondary, which plays a good two yards off every receiver.  Oregon has a defensive philosophy that it's okay for the opposing team to catch the ball, it's just not okay for the receiver to gain yards after the catch.  Thus, a smart offense can move on Oregon by playing toss-and-catch for 4-6 yards all day.  You never need to run another play.

Fortunately, even if the Oregon secondary stinks, OK State will make the mistake that other offenses make by feeling an inexplicable need to "balance" the offense.  In fact, the one "rave" I hear about the Cowboys' offense is how "balanced" it is.  OSU will not run the ball against Oregon with any success, and that will put pressure on its passing game - unless they go for 4-6 yard short gains every play.  Oregon gives those up like it was passing out Halloween candy.

My money is on the Oregon D, and in particular the secondary, showing up - they have a lot to atone for this season and with great seniors like Reed and Patrick Chung playing their last game, expect some bloodied-up Cowboy parts lying on the field by game's end.

On the other side of the ball, OSU can't stop Oregon's offense.  It's just that simple.

I know OSU fans like to mention how their team's only losses came to teams ranked, at the time, #1, #2, and #3.  But the rankings had those teams (except maybe Texas) ranked way, way too high.  As if there was any question about that, see Missouri's need for overtime to beat Northwestern - yes, Northwestern, one of the Big-10's perennial doormats.  I was unaware they even still played football at Northwestern.

Of course, Oklahoma is going to get butchered by Florida, while Texas manhandles an Ohio State team whose great accomplishment is to be a pretty good team in a very bad conference.  (I would have preferred to see a Texas-Florida matchup - now THAT would be some football).

Anyhow, OSU, in those hideous orange-and-black Great Pumpkin costumes, is about to be brought back to reality. (Reality = Pac-10 > Big-12, even in a supposed "down" year).

Prediction: Oregon 62, OSU 27.